MAT FPX 2001 Assessment 5 Evaluating Studies MAT FPX 2001 Statistical Reasoning

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  The research evaluated in this report was conducted through a Gallup Poll titled “Majority of Americans Say the Income Taxes They Pay Are Fair.” This study, available online at https://news.gallup.com/poll/309455/majority-americans-say-income-taxespay-fair.aspx, aimed to assess how Americans’ views on their income taxes have changed compared to a similar poll conducted a year earlier. In the previous poll, 59% of respondents agreed that the amount they pay in income taxes is fair.

  Population

  The study’s population consisted of a random sample of 1,017 adults aged 18 and over, residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. This sampling is appropriate and valid, as a sample size of 800 to 1,000 respondents is generally considered representative of the total U.S. adult population. Additionally, the inclusion of participants from each of the fifty states and the District of Columbia is significant, given that each state has its own tax structure.

  Results and Sampling Methods

  The results of the study can be classified as statistics since they represent the summary value of a small sample of the overall population. Interviews were conducted via landline telephones and cellular phones, with provisions made for Spanish-speaking respondents through Spanish-language interviews. Each sample of national adults included a minimum quota of 70% cell phone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional quotas by time zone and region.

  Respondents were selected using random sampling through random digit dialing methods. This sampling technique is recognized for reducing bias and is the most efficient and cost-effective way to obtain a representative sample of the true U.S. population. Participants were drawn from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Specifically, 540 respondents were employed either full-time or part-time, 629 were stock owners, 312 were retirees, and 671 were homeowners.

  Margin of Error and Confidence Level

  Surveys typically account for a margin of error, which is associated with a “confidence level,” usually set at 95%. For this survey, the margins of sampling error were calculated at ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. This means that if the survey were conducted 100 times, the results would fall within 4 percentage points of the original response 95 times. Conversely, in the other 5 instances, the answers might vary significantly. The survey’s small margin of error combined with a high confidence level indicates the validity of the results.

  Survey Questions

  The survey specifically posed the following questions:

• Do you consider the amount of federal income tax you have to pay as too high, about right, or too low?
• Do you regard the income tax which you will have to pay this year as fair?

Gallup. (2024). Majority of Americans Say the Income Taxes They Pay Are Fair. Retrieved from https://news.gallup.com/poll/309455/majority-american

These questions were phrased in a way that could potentially invite bias. For instance, beginning question 1 with “Do you consider” may encourage bias, and it could have been phrased more directly as “Is the amount of federal income tax…”. Question 2 uses the term “fair,” which is subjective and emotionally charged. A more neutral alternative might have been “equitable,” which, although synonymous with “fair,” is more straightforward and less emotive. However, the binary nature of question 2 may help counterbalance any unintended bias.

Influence/Bias

The use of random sampling in this study significantly reduced the likelihood of bias. Additionally, respondents were weighted to reflect the national demographics concerning gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both). Demographic weighting targets were derived from the March 2018 Current Population Survey figures for the U.S. population aged 18 and over. Phone status targets were based on the January-June 2018 National Health Interview Survey, and population density targets were based on the 2010 census. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting.

However, the benefits of random sampling were somewhat compromised by the research methodology, which did not assign participants to specific taxpaying categories. For example, there was no specific category for business owners and self-emplo